The shipbuilding industry is one of the most important manufacturing and pillar industries in South Korea, and it is also a major exporter of foreign trade, bringing a huge trade surplus to South Korea every year. In recent years, the export value and trade surplus of South Korean shipbuilding industry ranked first among the seven major export industries in South Korea. In 2010 and 2011, the export value of ships was 46.7 billion US dollars and 54.1 billion US dollars, respectively. In 2012, the export value of ships decreased to below 40 billion US dollars. Therefore, the trend of the shipbuilding market affects South Korea's sensitive "economic nerves", and every year at the end and beginning of the year, the "weather" of the shipbuilding market becomes a hot spot for analysis and prediction in the South Korean industry.

Prediction: The ship market is expected to improve but remains sluggish in the short term

The South Korean financial and related industries are generally cautious in their outlook for the international shipbuilding market in 2013, but most believe that the shipbuilding market in 2013 will be better than in 2012. The 2013 "Meteorological Map" of South Korea's pillar export industry published by the Korea Trade Association shows that the shipbuilding industry experienced "rainy weather" in 2012 and "cloudy weather" in 2013, with a meteorological level reaching a new level. The National Federation of Economists, a large corporate consortium in South Korea, believes that although the shipbuilding and maritime markets may improve slightly compared to 2012, they still struggle to overcome the shadow of slow global economic growth and the European debt crisis. Market analysts and researchers from several major securities companies in South Korea mostly believe that although the shipbuilding market may slightly improve, the overall sluggish state of the shipbuilding industry will continue, and the market order volume will slightly increase compared to 2012. However, the total number of ship orders held by shipping companies may fall, and the current situation of low ship prices is difficult to improve. The market value of listed stocks of Korean shipping companies may decline.

A study commissioned by South Korean securities industry intelligence and information company ENGIDE by Korea's Chosun Ilbo newspaper shows that the profits of large South Korean shipping companies will decline in 2013. This study suggests that due to the financial crisis in Europe, EU member states will experience negative economic growth, and Europe, as the center of the international ship financing market, will continue to experience a shrinking financing capacity, which will make it difficult to significantly increase the number of new ship orders. The Korean Chamber of Commerce and Industry believes that several large shipping companies in South Korea will strengthen their efforts to capture the market in the fields of marine equipment and liquefied natural gas (LNG) transport ships. Global oil and gas development, especially the large-scale development of shale gas and natural gas in the United States, will drive an increase in LNG ship orders.

In contrast, the market outlook of large shipbuilding companies in South Korea is referred to by South Korean media as "cautious". Li Zacheng, General Manager of Modern Heavy Industry, said, "The economic downturn in developed countries will continue, and the economic growth rate in developing countries will also slow down. The world economy has entered a low growth stage, which makes our business environment even more difficult. It is difficult for the markets of major sectors such as shipbuilding to overcome the downturn in the short term

The President of the Korean Shipbuilding Association is concurrently held by General Manager Gao Zaihao of Daewoo Shipbuilding. On January 10th, the Korean Shipbuilding Association held the 2013 Korean Shipbuilding Industry New Year's Group Meeting. During the meeting, Gao Zaihao expressed his outlook for the international shipbuilding market this year, stating that the world economy has entered a low level

 
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